The Cook Political Report has moved Nebraska’s gubernatorial contest into a more competitive category less than a week before the Nov. 3 general election. The forecaster changed the race rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”.
The adjustment came Tuesday as Cook also moved Kansas’ governor race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” The two states are traditionally Republican-leaning and were among the states President Donald Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election.
Nebraska race remains in Republican column
Republican Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking another term in Nebraska. The contest is part of a statewide election that will also include races for other constitutional offices, seats in the Unicameral and four ballot measures.
Cook’s change does not place the Nebraska race in its toss-up category. The “Lean Republican” rating indicates that the forecaster still views the Republican candidate as favored, while assigning the contest a narrower advantage than it did previously.
Cook’s analysis came amid broader concerns about the political environment facing Republicans before the midterms. The Newsweek account of the rating change cited voter concerns about affordability and declining approval of President Donald Trump’s handling of issues including the economy, immigration and jobs. It also referenced the war in Iran as part of the national political backdrop.
“Republicans still feel optimistic about flipping this race, and it remains their best takeover opportunity, but the volatility of the contest merits it being in a more competitive column.”
Cook Political Report made that assessment in its discussion of the Kansas contest. Kansas Republican Senate President Ty Masterson is running against Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher there, while Nebraska’s race involves Pillen and a Democratic challenger.
National environment shapes ratings
Trump carried Kansas with 57.2% of the vote in 2024, compared with 41% for then-Vice President Kamala Harris, according to figures cited by Newsweek. In Nebraska, Trump received 59.3% and Harris received 38.9%.
The Cook changes were announced one week before Election Day, when voters will decide whether to return Pillen to the governor’s office. The rating is an analysis of the race, not an election result or a projection by election officials.
