The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s statistical arm acknowledged a technical processing error that distorted September corn planting and yield data for Nebraska and Kansas, then corrected the baseline figures while keeping its October crop forecast unchanged, officials and industry leaders said.
What NASS corrected and what it left alone
The National Agricultural Statistics Service said Oct. 23 that a processing error corrupted September corn plant populations, ear counts, yields and production data for Kansas and Nebraska and also affected 10-state Midwest averages and national yield estimates. NASS updated its database to fix the September baseline.
- Nebraska’s September yield estimate was raised from 177 to 182 bushels per acre.
- The September U.S. average was nudged from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels per acre.
- NASS left its Oct. 9 forecast unchanged: a national average yield of 181.2 bushels per acre and a total crop of about 16 billion bushels.
The agency did not revise the October projections that have been the focus of intense market scrutiny since their release. NASS described the problem as a technical processing error and said it corrected the September baseline in its database.
Grower reaction
National Corn Growers Association President Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer, criticized the agency’s handling of the mistake, saying the reporting shifts have coincided with steep declines in corn futures and harmed farm finances.
“Recent reports by NASS have cost corn growers BILLIONS of dollars in market value, at a time when profit margins were already marginal, at best, and the cost for fuel and other inputs are at all-time highs,” Frostic said. “Corn prices dropped in conjunction with the release of recent reports and have only continued to drop. An error of this magnitude is unacceptable, and only further erodes farmer confidence in the agency’s ability to produce statistically sound and accurate reports.”
Frostic called on NASS to “seriously examine the processes and procedures that led to this mistake and take immediate action to prevent it from occurring again,” and said the association was anxious to meet with the service to review plans to rebuild confidence in the reports.
Context and next steps
Crop production and yield estimates from NASS are used by traders, lenders and producers to set marketing and borrowing decisions. The agency’s Oct. 9 national yield and production forecasts remain on the record. NASS’s Oct. 23 notice corrected the September database entries but did not present a revised October forecast.
Officials at NASS provided the correction in their database update and offered the formal acknowledgment on Oct. 23. Industry leaders have requested meetings to discuss procedural fixes and greater transparency in processing and publishing crop survey results.
