An extended ridge and associated “heat dome” forecast for the U.S. Plains in mid-October is unlikely to produce widespread harm to pollinating corn, World Weather Incorporated meteorologist Drew Lerner said Oct. 15, though he warned some northwestern Corn Belt areas could see drier conditions.
Limited risk to pollination and livestock
Lerner said the ridge dominating the Plains should keep hotter-than-usual temperatures in place for a few days but that the pattern appears transient. “As long as the ridge is going to be dominating in the plains,” he said, “If, for some reason, the ridge gets, you know, displaced farther east, all bets are off.” He added that the heat is expected to shift west after several days, allowing cooler Canadian air to return to much of the Midwest.
“As long as the ridge is going to be dominating in the plains. If, for some reason, the ridge gets, you know, displaced farther east, all bets are off.” — Drew Lerner, World Weather Incorporated
- Temperatures in parts of the Midwest were forecast to reach the 90s for several days during the period Lerner discussed.
- Rain distribution was expected to favor lower and eastern portions of the Midwest, with the most significant and frequent rainfall forecast for states such as Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
- Northwestern Corn Belt areas including South Dakota, southwest Minnesota, Nebraska and northwest Iowa were identified as likely to receive the least rain and to experience somewhat warmer conditions.
Context for Nebraska producers
Lerner said scattered rains were expected ahead of the heat but that the most substantial precipitation would fall in the lower and eastern Midwest. He identified Nebraska among the areas in the northwest Corn Belt that could see fewer rain chances and a warmer temperature regime, conditions that can raise concern during sensitive crop stages such as pollination.
The meteorologist characterized the overall forecast as “generally favorable for U.S. corn and soybean development,” noting the likelihood of a westward shift in the warm pattern and a subsequent influx of cooler air into the Midwest after several days.
Producers and advisers monitoring pollination and late-season crop development should follow updated forecasts from local National Weather Service offices and private meteorologists for timing and intensity changes to the ridge pattern Lerner described.
